Projections

Articles detailing player projections.

David Gassko
-Projection Roundtable, Part 1 (2006) - Constancio, Lichtman, Tango, McCracken, Szymborski, Warren, and Gassko discuss projections
-Projection Roundtable, Part 2 (2006)
-Projection Roundtable, Part 3 (2006)
-Projection Roundtable, Part 4 (2006)
-Projection Roundtable, Part 5 (2006)

Mitchel Lichtman
Age Curve* - Player aging by UZR, batting, baserunning, etc.

Ron Shandler
The great myths of projective accuracy (2005)

Nate Silver
-The Science Behind Forecasting (2004) - Some basics behind player projections
-PECOTA Takes on the Field (2004) - Projection accuracy

Tom Tango
-Aging Patterns
-Aging Patterns, by components
-Banner Years (2002)
-Do Speedsters age differently than Leadfooters - Differences in aging by player type
-The 2004 Marcels (2004) - The monkey’s methodology

*PDF file